Educating young consumers – a food choice model

It has been acknowledged that it is only by obtaining a more detailed understanding of food choice that people’s diets can be improved. In Northern Ireland, research into food choice has been limited yet the Province has the second highest rate of heart disease in the world, indicating the need for change. This study investigated the food choices of 9‐ to 17‐year‐olds in Northern Ireland and the influential factors. A range of research techniques were employed incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods, namely observations, focus groups, picture associations, dietary case studies and questionnaires. The research indicated that the dietary patterns adopted by this group are characterized by a high consumption of fat, yet the reduction of fat tends to dominate the overall strategy for the prevention of obesity and lowering the risk of coronary heart disease. In addition, a high consumption of sugar products was evidenced along with a distinct dislike for healthier alternatives such as fruit and vegetables. The ‘skipping’ of meals, especially breakfast and a high prevalence of snacking was also apparent. However, these eating habits were found to be affected by various factors such as age and gender, emphasizing the complex nature of food choice. The findings from this research enabled the development of a model relating to the food choices of 9‐ to 17‐year‐olds in Northern Ireland, highlighting the influential factors and subsequent health implications.     

A generalized volatility bound for dynamic economies

We develop a generalization of the Hansen-Jagannathan (1991) volatility bound that (i) incorporates the serial correlation properties of return data and (ii) allows us to calculate a spectral version of the bound. This generalization enables us to judge whether models match important aspects of the data in the long run, at business cycle frequencies, seasonal frequencies, etc. Our bound permits evaluation of models without requiring their explicit solution in a way that respects the dynamic implications of the fundamental component of the models, namely, the Euler equation that links asset returns to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution.     

Price Rigidities, Inflationary Finance and Long-run Growth*

The paper considers a monopolistically competitive intertemporally optimizing monetary economy featuring long-term growth. Inflation is generated through sluggish price-setting and contributes to budgetary finance through seignorage. This setup permits exploration of the interaction between inflation and growth in a tractable way. Superneutrality holds in the long but not the short run. The budget deficit fuels inflation with a hysteresis. Growth and inflation are negatively correlated in the long run, with causality running from the former to the latter, and positively correlated in the short run regardless of the origin of shocks. Price flexibility precipitates adjustment but appears also to destabilize output.     

THE INFLUENCE OF EXPERT REVIEWS ON CONSUMER DEMAND FOR EXPERIENCE GOODS: A CASE STUDY OF MOVIE CRITICS*

An inherent problem in measuring the influence of expert reviews on the demand for experience goods is that a correlation between good reviews and high demand may be spurious, induced by an underlying correlation with unobservable quality signals. Using the timing of the reviews by two popular movie critics, Siskel and Ebert, relative to opening weekend box office revenue, we apply a difference‐in‐differences approach to circumvent the problem of spurious correlation. After purging the spurious correlation, the measured influence effect is smaller though still detectable. Positive reviews have a particularly large influence on the demand for dramas and narrowly‐released movies.     

The Co‐initial Swap Market Model

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to the pricing and the risk management of generic European style interest‐rate derivatives. This new model has great flexibility and has the advantage of avoiding complex model calibration techniques typical of standard short‐rate models. Dynamics is assigned on a set of co‐initial forward swap rates, and arbitrage‐free restrictions are determined in a normal and lognormal setup. Model implementation and calibration are discussed, and details of two example applications are also presented.
(J.E.L.: G12, G13).     

Protectionism, Trade, and Measures of Damage from Exotic Species Introductions

Unintentional introductions of nonindigenous plants, animals, and microbes cause significant ecological and agricultural crop damage worldwide. Trade in both manufactured and agricultural goods is a primary vector for such introductions. Fusing simple models of trade and biological introductions, we explore the links between trade, protectionism, and damage arising from exotic species introductions. We show that it is possible for freer trade to reduce damage arising from exotic species invasions. We also show how current measures of damage—heavily weighted toward agricultural damage—serve as misleading indicators of how restrictions to trade affect total losses arising from exotic species introductions.     

Ricardian Equivalence and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan

The present paper asks whether there is a limit to the potential for government spending to stimulate output in the Japanese economy. Overlapping generations and Ricardian infinite horizon representative agent models are developed, in which the government spending multiplier falls as the level of spending rises. Consistent with the Ricardian hypothesis, vector autoregressions (VAR) indicate that the timing of taxes has little impact on national output. Conversely, the impact of government spending is significant. However, using non–linear VAR techniques, the author finds empirical evidence for the hypothesis of a regime–dependent government spending multiplier that falls as spending rises.